MUMBAI: Malaysian crude palm oil futures, down by a quarter this year, may dip 10 percent by December as the retreat of funds from the market and economic gloom hits demand while supply remains strong, industry analyst Dorab Mistry said.
Demand for palm oil has not been able to recover after it was crimped by high prices last year, while supplies soared after excellent weather conditions this year, Mistry told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Globoil conference. Mistry, a director of India’s commodities-to-appliances company Godrej International Ltd, is scheduled to present a paper on price forecasting on Sunday.
“Now of course the economic outlook for the whole world has become very cloudy, so we may not capture back the demand we have lost,” he said. On Friday, the most-active December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 33 ringgit at 2,313 ringgit ($674) per tonne. Prices have halved since their record level in March.
“Price have already fallen a great deal but we may not have bottomed out yet. We may have another five to 10 percent more to go on the downside,” he said, suggesting crude palm oil prices may sink to 2,000 ringgit.
Palm oil was going through a cyclic high-production phase since September last year — a phase that should normally have ended in July 2008, but was likely to last until November, he said.
“In a situation of uncertain economic times and with a problem with funds, which were propping up the commodity markets, having withdrawn or retreated, markets could fall a bit more.”
Mistry said supply was up despite attempts to hide output. “Production kept going up and the suppliers kept hiding production, holding back, holding back until the stocks became unbearable and then suddenly they let go.” Prices would look up only after stocks diminish, helped by use of the cooking medium as fuel as both oils had about the same calorific value, he said.
“Prices need to go down to 2,200 ringit in order to reach this market clearing level where people can make use of oil for anything and clear the stocks,” he said.
“Until that happens, until you go down and clear stocks, you won’t go up again. Otherwise you will keep on suffering from indigestion.”
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